The impending death of humanity from overcrowding was 'obvious, to someone who took a few data points from around the middle of the 20th century, and then did a straight-line or exponential extrapolation from them.
That sort of thing can be an interesting exercise in mathematics. The 'overpopulation' panic wasn't, in my considered opinion, sensible. But it was all the rage for a remarkably long time.
Fallout From "The Population Bomb"
Ehrlich's book, "The Population Bomb," convinced quite a few folks that having babies would destroy us all. Today, a half-century later, some countries are discovering why letting folks feel okay about having babies is a good idea.Basically, an individual human being won't last much more that a century, if that. If you're going to keep a culture going: someone's going to have to keep providing new human beings.
Don't get me wrong: I think there's more to life than utilitarian considerations, and I've been over that before. (October 7, 2011, February 2, 2009)
Japan's Population Crisis, 2012
Today's Japan has a population crisis, but it's not Ehrlich's 'bomb:'"Lack of babies could mean the extinction of the Japanese people"I think a 'birth dearth,' a comparative lack of children, is a problem for Japan, and some other countries. But I think it's a problem for today, and maybe for the next century.
FoxNews.com (May 11, 2012)
"Japan has a problem, a lack of children, and it seems likely there will be even fewer in the future.
"Japanese researchers have now warned of a doomsday scenario if it carries on this way with the last child to be born there in 3011 and the Japanese people potentially disappearing a few generations later.
"Academics from the city of Sendai, which was hit hard by last year's tsunami, calculate there are now 16.6 million children under the age of 14 now in Japan.
"And they say that number is shrinking at a disturbing rate of one every 100 seconds.
"So if you do the mathematics, as they did, then the country will have no children within a millennium...."
After that? Quite a lot can happen in a thousand years. My guess is that more folks in Japan and elsewhere will rediscover the advantages of having a family: at least, I hope so.
Change Happens
Norway is one of my ancestral homelands, so last year's mass-murder there held my attention rather strongly. I posted about the perpetrator's trial last month:- Change, Love, and Mass Murder"
(May 30, 2012)
Particularly
Population, Migration, and All That
Here's another comparison of Norway and America:- Norway (2007 estimate)
- Ethnic groups
- Norwegian 94.4%
- Includes Sami, about 60,000
- Other European 3.6%
- Other 2%
- Norwegian 94.4%
- Population
- Growth rate 0.327% (2012 est.)
- Net migration rate: 1.69 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2012 est.)
- Total fertility rate 1.77 children born/woman (2012 est.)
- Ethnic groups
- United States (2007 estimate)
- Ethnic groups
- White 79.96%
- Hispanic about 15.1%
- Black 12.85%
- Asian 4.43%
- Amerindian and Alaska native 0.97%
- Native Hawaiian and other Pacific islander 0.18%
- Two or more races 1.61%
- Population
- Growth rate 0.899% (2012 est.)
- Net migration rate: 3.62 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2012 est.)
- Total fertility rate 2.06 children born/woman (2012 est.)
"United States" (last updated May 9, 2012), CIA World Factbook) - Ethnic groups
Norway's population is growing - slowly, but it's 'positive growth.' That's quite impressive, for a country where each woman only has on average about 1.77 children during her life. That's well under the two-point-something needed to replace folks who die. My guess is that Norway's growth is due to immigrants: those folks whose presence Breivik couldn't stand.
More Statistics - or - The Incredible Shrinking Countries
I think Japan's declining birth rate is a real concern: particularly for folks living in Japan. But that country, and Norway, don't make the 'bottom 10' when it comes to either growth rate or fertility rate.I'm not sure if this could quite be called a listing of 'winners' and 'losers.' But eventually, a country with fewer citizens each year will face some serious issues: like who pays the taxes.
Another point is that death happens to everybody. Countries whose people aren't raising enough children must either depend on immigration to fill roles left vacant as folks reach the end of their lives.
I'll just call the lists "Population Growth Rate," and "Total Fertility Rate:"
Population Growth Rate
| Bottom 10 | |
| Cook Islands | -3.136% |
| Northern Mariana Islands | -2.449% |
| Moldova | -1.014% |
| Saint Pierre and Miquelon | -0.978% |
| Jordan | -0.965% |
| Syria | -0.797% |
| Bulgaria | -0.796% |
| Estonia | -0.65% |
| Montenegro | -0.633% |
| Ukraine | -0.625% |
| Top 10 | |
| United Arab Emirates | 3.055% |
| Burkina Faso | 3.073% |
| Burundi | 3.104% |
| Gaza Strip | 3.108% |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 3.17% |
| Ethiopia | 3.179% |
| Uganda | 3.582% |
| Niger | 3.63% |
| Zimbabwe | 4.357% |
| Qatar | 4.93% |
Total Fertility Rate
| Bottom 10 | |
| Singapore | 0.78 children born/woman |
| Macau | 0.92 children born/woman |
| Hong Kong | 1.09 children born/woman |
| Taiwan | 1.16 children born/woman |
| British Virgin Islands | 1.22 children born/woman |
| Korea, South | 1.23 children born/woman |
| Belarus | 1.27 children born/woman |
| Czech Republic | 1.27 children born/woman |
| Lithuania | 1.27 children born/woman |
| Montserrat | 1.27 children born/woman |
| Top 10 | |
| Congo, Republic of the | 5.59 children born/woman |
| Afghanistan | 5.64 children born/woman |
| Zambia | 5.9 children born/woman |
| Ethiopia | 5.97 children born/woman |
| Burkina Faso | 6.07 children born/woman |
| Burundi | 6.08 children born/woman |
| Somalia | 6.26 children born/woman |
| Mali | 6.35 children born/woman |
| Uganda | 6.65 children born/woman |
| Niger | 7.52 children born/woman |
Europe: It Could be Worse
I haven't run into a discussion of this, but the European Union European Union has more that economic woes.Folks in the EU aren't even close to raising enough children to be the next generations of Europeans. The EU's fertility rate is 1.58 children born/woman. The good news is that EU population is growing: slowly. The EU population annual growth rate is 0.212% (Population growth rate, "CIA World Factbook" (2012))
I took a quick look at some countries in the European Union:
- France 2.08 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.497%
- Netherlands 1.78 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.452%
- Luxembourg 1.77 children born/woman
- Growth rate 1.135%
- Denmark 1.74 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.239%
- Sweden 1.67 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.168%
- Belgium 1.65 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.061%
- Portugal 1.51 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.181%
- Germany 1.41 children born/woman
- Growth rate -0.2%
- Austria 1.41 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.026%
- Italy 1.4 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.38%
- Greece 1.39 children born/woman
- Growth rate 0.06%
(2012 estimates, source: Total fertility rate, "CIA World Factbook" (2012))
Immigration can be a fine thing. I think it's one reason that America has managed as well as we have. So far, we're still having new folks move in, with fresh ideas and the get-up-and-go it takes to move from one country to another.
I'm not sure how folks in Europe, the "European" ones, are going to react as more realize what's happening. At this rate, most Danes, Swedes, and Austrians won't look the way Danes, Swedes, and Austrians did before the 21st century.
The Attitude of This 'Hyphenated American'
I don't mind today's America 'looking different' from the one I grew up in. It's the way things work here: and anyway: I'm a mixed lot of Norwegian, Irish, and Scots, who married a German-Dutch-American woman.I suppose our kids are 'Norwegian-German-Dutch-Irish-Scots-German-Dutch-Americans.' Some of us look a bit like Celts now; my wife and #3 daughter are learning Soo Bahk Do, a Korean martial art; and that's another topic. Topics
Living in a Big World
By today's standards, I'm not 'of mixed race.' But just a few generations back, one of my ancestors was appalled at what was sniffing around her daughter. My paternal grandmother married the smooth-talking Irishman anyway. (November 13, 2008)By now, my extended family has roots in ancient North America and the Philippines, as well as Europe. "Diversity" isn't a priority: but it's not something we avoid, either.
When I became a Catholic, I had to change some of my beliefs and attitudes. What didn't change was how I felt about being part of a catholic outfit - an association that's literally καθολικός, universal:
- "Diversity in Unity: Two Millennia and Counting"
(April 18, 2012)
Finally, as I've said before, what the Catholic Church teaches is simple:
- 'Love God, love your neighbor.'
- Bible
- Catechism of the Catholic Church
- Everybody's our neighbor
- Bible
- Catechism
This post is the third in a series of four:
- "The World isn't Flat"
(June 9, 2012) - "Catholics, Families, and Hope"
(June 9, 2012) - "Population Explosion, Birth Dearth, and a Changing World"
(June 9, 2012) - "Taking Life a Thousand Years at a Time"
(June 10, 2012)
- Science and sense
- "Earth Day, 2012: This Catholic's View"
(April 22, 2012) - "Upset Applecarts: A Hopeful Sign"
(March 5, 2012)
Particularly - " 'Inevitable Progress;' 'We're All Gonna Die;' and Getting a Grip"
(January 16, 2012) - "7,000,000,000 People, More or Less: Why I'm Not Alarmed"
(October 31, 2011) - "Climate Changes: So What Else is New?"
(May 16, 2011)
- "Earth Day, 2012: This Catholic's View"
- Living in a big world
- "Building the World of Tomorrow - Make that Worlds"
(May 28, 2012) - " 'Deeds Without Knowledge are Blind' "
(April 23, 2012) - "Zambia, America, and Two Millennia of Weaseling"
(September 26, 2011) - "Sudan, Darfur: My Take"
(January 8, 2011)
Particularly - "Sustainable African Development: And Swift's Modest Proposal"
(May 6, 2010)
- "Building the World of Tomorrow - Make that Worlds"
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