Climate Change, Deccan Traps: Still Learning

Scientists found a two-century lag between temperature changes near Earth's poles — and maybe a "bipolar seesaw" temperature cycle.

Other scientists say that shock waves from the Chicxulub impact may have triggered volcanic eruptions in the Deccan Traps and elsewhere.

1. Ice Cores and a Climate Lag
   • A Half-Billion Years of Climate Change
   • "...We Still Don't Know...."
   • Temperature Swings: There's More to Learn
2. Deccan Traps and the Chicxulub Impact

We don't, I think, have all the answers about how Earth's climate changes and what we should do about it: but we're discovering what some of the questions are. That's a good start.

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Aristotle, Galileo, and All That

We've come a long way since Aristotle said we live in the sublunary sphere where stuff changes: unlike his heavenly bodies that didn't change, had always existed, and always would.

Aristotle's opinion carried considerable clout 16 centuries later, when the Church prohibited folks from claiming that Aristotle's preferences outvote God. Some rulings of 1277 got reversed in subsequent centuries: but not the basic idea — God's God, Aristotle's not. (February 23, 2014; January 29, 2012)

A bit later, observations of a supernova and comet wouldn't fit into Aristotle's cosmology.

Tycho Brahe measured the 1572 supernova's position over several days. Since it didn't move against the background stars, he decided that it was very distant — certainly not a terrestrial phenomenon.

A few months later, he noted that it still hadn't moved: suggesting it was farther away than the planets. Brahe didn't think much of the folks who still insisted that the "nova stella" had to be an earthly phenomenon, because Aristotle said the heavens don't change.

Then in 1577, Brahe observed the Great Comet of 1577 and compared notes with Tadeáš Hájek. Brahe, on Hven, and Hájek, in Prague, had observed the moon and comet. Their measurements made sense only if the comet was a lot further away than the moon.

Galileo was turning 13 at the time. He observed Kepler's Supernova in 1604, and got in trouble for insisting that his (at the time unproven) theories were facts. It didn't help that some theologians of the day didn't realize that poetry isn't science, and that's another topic. (April 18, 2014; October 26, 2009)

Aristotle was right about our part of the world changing, though:

"...The same tracts, therefore, of the earth are not some always sea, and others always continents, but every thing changes in the course of time."
("Meteorics," Aristotle, translated by Charles Lyell, via Wikipedia)

We've discovered that today's continents grew around what geologists call cratons. These cratons haven't changed all that much over the last few billion years, although they've gotten pushed around as Earth's lithosphere moved.

Gothic Cathedrals and the Universe

I've drifted off-topic. Let's see: cosmology, Aristotle, astronomy, more Aristotle, continents. Got it.

Giorgio Vasari blamed the Goths for destroying ancient Roman buildings and inventing a "barbarous German style" — like Sante-Chapelle. I think designing stone buildings whose walls are mostly stained glass is nifty: but I'm a Norwegian-Irish-Scots-American who married a German-Dutch-English-American. I'm pretty "barbaric," myself.

Anyway, European society had been getting puréed by the Renaissance for nearly two centuries when Martin Luther touched off the Protestant Reformation in 1517. I've discussed newfangled ideas, Joshua 10:13, and getting a grip, before. (July 18, 2014)

Around 1650, a Dublin-born Calvinist published a history of the world. He said the first day of creation started at nightfall on Saturday, October 22, 4004 BC. That was a reasonable estimate — in the 17th century.

Meanwhile, Danish scientist Nicolas Steno — a pioneer in anatomy and geology — was questioning assumptions about fossils. Turns out, he was right: Fossils don't grow in the ground.

Somewhere around 1778, Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon decided that Earth was roughly 75,000 years old. Instead of basing his estimate of Bible verses, the Count had measured how fast iron cools. He was wrong, by quite a few powers of ten.

In 1862, William Thomson figured it would take 20,000,000 to 400,000,000 years for Earth to cool to what we have today. His figures didn't take radioactive decay into account: understandably, since we didn't know about it at the time.

We're reasonably sure Earth is 4,540,000,000 years old, plus or minus 50,000,000. Our current estimates are based on analysis of radioactive decay in samples from Earth, our moon, and meteorites.

That number has been tweaked a bit during my lifetime, but I'd be very surprised if scientists are off by more than a fraction of a percent.

Some folks still insist that a 17th-century Calvinist was right about Earth's age: including, oddly enough, some Catholics.

Me? I'm willing to take God's universe "as is."

Pursuing Truth

Nicolas Steno's parents were Lutherans, and so was he: until he studied comparative theology in Florence. He became a Catholic on All Souls day, 1667. Steno's studies turned from science to theology, and he eventually became a bishop.

Nicolas Steno was beatified by Pope St. John Paul II on October 23, 1988. Other renditions of his name in my language are Niels Stensen and Nicolaus Steno.

Folks are beatified for displaying holiness.¹ Lacking curiosity is not a requirement, or St. Albertus Magnus would never have become patron Saint of natural sciences. For Catholics, thinking is not a sin. (November 21, 2014; February 23, 2014)

Thinking, being a rational creature, is part of being human. Using our brains is optional, so is how we use them, and that's yet another topic. (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 1730-1742)

This universe, filled with order and beauty, is an invitation to "greater admiration" for God's greatness. I think accepting that invitation makes sense. Bottom line, faith and reason get along: or should. Faith is deciding that I'll trust God, and cooperate with reality. (Catechism, 31-35, 154-155, 283)

There's more to life than studying this astounding universe: but pursuing truth does not threaten an informed faith.

"...I would urge them to continue their efforts without ever abandoning the sapiential horizon within which scientific and technological achievements are wedded to the philosophical and ethical values which are the distinctive and indelible mark of the human person. Scientists are well aware that 'the search for truth, even when it concerns a finite reality of the world or of man, is never-ending, but always points beyond to something higher than the immediate object of study, to the questions which give access to Mystery'...."
("Fides et Ratio," Pope St. John Paul II (September 14, 1998))

---

"...if methodical investigation within every branch of learning is carried out in a genuinely scientific manner and in accord with moral norms, it never truly conflicts with faith, for earthly matters and the concerns of faith derive from the same God...."
("Gaudium et Spes," Pope St. Paul VI (December 7, 1965))

---

"...truth cannot contradict truth...."
("Providentissimus Deus," Leo XIII (November 18, 1893))

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As I've said before — science and technology, studying this universe and using that knowledge to develop new tools, is part of being human. Ethics apply, of course: whether we're using the latest tech, or nothing but our fingers and teeth. (Catechism, 2293-2295)

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1. Ice Cores and a Climate Lag

(From BBC News, used w/o permission.)
("The Antarctic core provides a comparison with records from Greenland"
(BBC News))

"Ice cores show 200-year climate lag"
Stephanie McClellan, BBC News (May 5, 2015)

"Scientists have found a 200-year lag time between past climate events at the poles.

"The most detailed Antarctic ice core provides the first clear comparison with Greenland records, revealing a link between northern and southern hemisphere climate change.

"Scientists found that abrupt and large temperature changes first occurred in Greenland, with the effect delayed about 200 years in the Antarctic...."

Climate change is real: and, as I've said recently, it's not new. Earth's climate has been changing ever since the planet formed, some four-and-a-half billion years back.

What's new is how much we know about Earth's story: including the most recent glacial epoch, that started around the time we arrived. (February 20, 2015)

This BBC News article talks about "very abrupt and large swings in temperature approximately 20,000 to 60,000 years ago."

Let's put that in perspective.


(From Lisiecki and Raymo (2005), via Wikimedia Commons; under GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later; used w/o permission.)

That graph shows average temperatures at Vostok Station in Antarctica — based on analysis of an oxygen isotope in deep-sea ocean sediments. My guess is that it's not spot-on accurate: but not very far from what actually happened.

More about Earth's most recent five million years of climate change:

• "A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic d18O records"
  Lorraine E. Lisiecki, Maureen E. Raymo; Paleoceanography, Vol. 20 (2005)

The "41 kyr cycle" is a Milankovitch cycle: regular variations in how far Earth's rotational axis wanders. The "100 kyr cycle" is another cyclic variation in Earth's axis: and an issue for folks trying to make sense of Milankovitch cycles.

Earth's equator is tilted 23.44 degrees from the ecliptic today. It tilts up to 24.5 degrees, and is on its way to the 22.1 degree minimum at the moment. The cycle takes about 41,000 years: hence the "41 kyr (kiloyear)" name.

Milutin Milanković made the connection between these changes and Earth's climate a little less than a century back. His theory wasn't popular when I was in high school, but data collected since the '60s shows that he was on the right track: or that Earth's climate changed the way he said it did, by some wild coincidence.

Earth is much more than 5,000,000 years old, though: and hasn't been the same since the dinosaurs died.

A Half-Billion Years of Climate Change

(From Robert A. Rohde, from published and publicly available data, incorporated into the Global Warming Art project; via Wikimedia Commons; under GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later; used w/o permission.)

Again, this graph comes from analysis of deep-sea sediments. I'm quite sure it isn't an exact fit with reality: but I'm also confident that it's pretty close to what's happened.

Earth's current ice age started very roughly 3,000,000 years back. That's continental glaciers started spreading on North America and Greenland — and when the Isthmus of Panama closed, stopping circulation between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Scientists think shifting ocean currents helped start the glaciers, but we're not entirely sure. The Tibetan plateau has been getting higher, too.

I suspect we're learning how much we don't know almost as fast as we're solving existing puzzles. The good news is that we're learning: a lot, very fast.

One more graph, and I'll get back to ice cores and this week's science news.


(From Dragons flight, from publicly available data, part of the Global Warming Art project; via Wikimedia Commons; under GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later; used w/o permission.)

Again, this is a pretty good estimate of Earth's average temperature, based on analysis of oxygen isotopes. The Phaerozoic is what scientists call Earth's current geologic eon. It started 541,000,000 years ago, give or take 1,000,000, when critters like Trilobites and reef-building Archaeocyatha appeared.

Looks like Earth in humanity's day is colder than it's been since the Andean-Saharan glaciation, 460,000,000 to 430,000,000 years ago — when Earth's second-largest cluster of extinction events happened. The big one happened about a quarter-billion years later. (April 24, 2015)

We're accustomed to a world where a mile-deep glacier covers most of Greenland. Earth has been colder, but not by much. The last I heard, scientists still aren't sure if we're in an interglacial period: or if the Quaternary glaciation is finally over.

"...We Still Don't Know...."

"...The 3,405 metre-long ice core, taken from the centre of West Antarctica, is the longest high resolution ice core. Researchers documented 18 abrupt climate events.

" 'This record has annual resolution, meaning we can see information about every year going back 30,000 years, and close to that resolution all the way back to 68,000 years ago,' explains Eric Steig, professor of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington, who co-wrote the paper.

" 'Our new results show unambiguously that the Antarctic changes happen after the rapid temperature changes in Greenland. It is a major advance to know that the Earth behaves in this particular way.'

"The new core also supports the 'bipolar seesaw' effect between poles, meaning that when it's warm in Greenland, Antarctica is cooling, and vice versa.

" 'The fact that temperature changes are opposite at the two poles suggests that there is a redistribution of heat going on between the hemispheres,' said Christo Buizert, lead author on the study and a post-doctoral researcher at Oregon State University.

" 'We still don't know what caused these past shifts, but understanding their timing gives us important clues about the underlying mechanisms.'..."
(Stephanie McClellan, BBC News)

Professor Steig said the 200-year lag points to Earth's ocean as the heat transfer medium. Atmospheric heat transfer would take years, maybe decades: not centuries.

As Christo Buizert said, "we still don't know" why these climate shifts happened. But we're learning.

Temperature Swings: There's More to Learn

(From BBC News, used w/o permission.)
("Cores contain a record of past temperature swings"
(BBC News))

"...The team has planned further studies to really unpack the annual resolution seen in the core.

"Prof Steig concluded: 'We've actually been talking about and planning for this ice core for essentially my entire career.

" 'I remember an old colleague of mine telling me how we should go to this spot in Antarctica and drill an ice core in 1989 when I was beginning graduate school. And we've only really just finished the work about 25 years later.' "
(Stephanie McClellan, BBC News)

We've come a long way in the last hundred years.

Oswald Avery identified DNA as the genetic material in chromosomes, Jonas Salk developed polio vaccine, Andrew Wiles proved Fermat's Last Theorem — and Helmut Landsberg applied statistical analysis to climatology, "which led to its evolution into a physical science." (Wikipedia)

Many folks apparently replaced unbridled optimism about science and technology — with equally-unrestrained fear of science and technology. Or, perhaps more likely, the loudest folks in a new generation wore a different set of intellectual blinders.

I don't see science and tech as a panacea, or a bogey man. Whether they help or hurt humanity depends on our decisions: blaming our tools makes no sense. Not to me.

I also don't see a problem with regulating Earth's climate: after we learn how it works. Part of our job is managing Earth's resources: wisely, with respect for the integrity of creation, and with a concern for future generations. (Catechism, 2415-2418)

Geoengineering should wait until we have a few more answers. Today, we're still learning what questions to ask. (February 20, 2015; June 15, 2014)

More:

• WAIS (West Antarctic Ice Sheet) Divide
  Wikipedia
• "Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age"
  WAIS Divide Project Members, Article preview, Nature (April 30, 2015)
  • (Limited full access via Nature Publishing Group's Online access to this article provided by the nature.com content sharing initiative.)
• "Antarctic ice core reveals how sudden climate changes in North Atlantic moved south"
  NSF Press Release (April 29, 2015)

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2. Deccan Traps and the Chicxulub Impact

(From Richards et al, UC Berkeley; via ScienceDaily; used w/o permission.)
("Illustration of a hot mantle plume 'head' pancaked beneath the Indian Plate...." ScienceDaily)

"Did dinosaur-killing asteroid trigger largest lava flows on Earth?"
University of California - Berkeley, ScienceDaily (April 30, 2015)

"The asteroid that slammed into the ocean off Mexico 66 million years ago and killed off the dinosaurs probably rang the Earth like a bell, triggering volcanic eruptions around the globe that may have contributed to the devastation, according to a team of University of California, Berkeley, geophysicists.

"Specifically, the researchers argue that the impact likely triggered most of the immense eruptions of lava in India known as the Deccan Traps, explaining the 'uncomfortably close' coincidence between the Deccan Traps eruptions and the impact, which has always cast doubt on the theory that the asteroid was the sole cause of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction...."

"It's complicated" seems to describe most aspects of Earth's long history.

Volcanic eruptions had been forming the Deccan Traps before the Chicxulub impact: but these scientists say they've found evidence that lava flow increased after the impact.

Shock waves from the impact could have felt like a magnitude 9 earthquake everywhere on Earth — triggering more massive eruptions in the Deccan Traps, and in other volcanically active areas.

As we learn more about the dinosaurs' last days, it looks like they might have survived the Chicxulub impact: if gasses from eruptions in the Deccan Traps hadn't been dropping Earth's temperature as sea level fell.

It was not a good time to be a dinosaur.

Whatever blasted out the Chicxulub crater may not have been alone. There's serious doubt about whether the Shiva formation west of Mumbai/Bombay, India, is an impact crater, but the Boltysh crater in Ukraine is definitely from an impact.

The Boltysh crater is only 24 kilometers, 15 miles, across: but whatever made it hit Earth within a thousand years or so of the Chicxulub event. One of today's unanswered questions is whether these two impacts were a statistical fluke — two of many impacts around that time.

Cosmic debris big enough to trigger an extinction-level event come at (apparently) irregular intervals of much more than ten million years, on average. Smaller bits and pieces, like the one that exploded over Chelyabinsk in 2013, come every century: more or less.

We're not quite ready to move an incoming asteroid into a harmless orbit: but we're nearly there, and that's yet again another topic. (January 16, 2015)


(Image © Don Davis; from PAINTINGS at www.donaldedavis.com)

More about using our brains:

• "Climate Change, Science, and the Vatican"
  (May 1, 2015)
  Particularly
  • The 'Vatican Science Academy:' Climate Change Matters
• "Setting Earth's Thermostat"
  (February 20, 2015)
  Particularly
  • 'Next Pinatubo' and Geoengineering
    • "... Allergic to Change ..."
• "Scientific Discoveries: an Invitation to 'Even Greater Admiration' "
  (September 21, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Truth Cannot Contradict Truth
  • Continental Drift and Personal Preference
  • Psalms 115 and the Universe
• "Starships, Dinosaurs, and Long-Distance Service for Mars"
  (August 1, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Ulysses, Fraud, and Sin
  • Dinosaurs and an Asteroid: Really Bad Timing
• "Environmentalism: Using the Brains God Gave Us"
  (June 15, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Delicate and Fragile as Cockroaches and Thistles
  • God's Property, Our Responsibility
  • "Essentially Benign?"
  • Not Lords, Not Victims: Stewards

---

¹ "New procedures in the Rite of Beatification," Congregation for the Causes of Saints (September 29, 2005)

Setting Earth's Thermostat

Events like the Pinatubo eruptions of 1991 happen about once a century — on average — roughly.

Some scientists say that next time there's a Pinatubo-scale eruption, we should deploy a fleet of instrument-carrying aircraft, balloons, and satellites: to see exactly what happens when sulfur dioxide and other chemicals get dumped into the upper atmosphere.

We know that the stuff causes regional and global climate changes: but we don't know exactly how the process works.

There's more than pure scientific curiosity behind wanting this knowledge. Earth's climate is changing, which is par for the course: but we're at a point where our actions can affect climate.

The job at hand is leaning how Earth's climate works, how it changes, and what causes the changes. Then we'll decide what to do about that knowledge.

Just for fun, I also picked a news item about furry critters that lived in the days of dinosaurs.

1. 'Next Pinatubo' and Geoengineering
   • "... Allergic to Change ..."
   • Earth: Hot, Cold, and Everything in Between
   • Geoengineering and Options
   • Gathering Data
   • Choices: Crazy and Otherwise
2. Furry Critters and Dinosaurs
   • Modularity

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Pinatubo, 1991

(From USGS, via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.)
(June 12, 1991: Mt. Pinatubo eruption. U.S. Geological Survey Photo taken by Richard P. Hoblitt.)

June, 1991, was not a good month to live on — or near — Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. Folks knew a big eruption was coming, so evacuation plans had been made: and put off until rather close to the catastrophic event.

Unlike Boston National Weather Service forecasters back in 1953, Philippine authorities weren't worried about panicking 'the masses.' (January 16, 2015)

They realized that if they kept issuing false alarms, folks in harms way might start ignoring them: and did get around 60,000 folks out of a 30-kilometer danger zone by June 13. The 'big one' came June 15.

Evacuees included Aeta living on Mount Pinatubo: whose ancestors may have walked to the Philippines during the last (or current) ice age. Many Aeta had started moving after the first eruptions. You don't survive that long by being stupid or crazy: and that's not really another topic.

My guess is that we're centuries, maybe millennia, from having technology that could suppress or control volcanic eruptions. At this point, we're doing well to predict when the things will go off while there's still time to run.

We can do something about the weather, though: and are learning the value of prudence and foresight.

Cloud Seeding and a Disturbing Coincidence

(From National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.)
(Black Hills Flood of 1972: jumbled cars.)

At the start of the 20th century, "experts" knew that weather modification was a foolish waste of time — or a fraud. I can see their viewpoint: they hadn't learned how to make it rain when they got their degrees, so how could these young whippersnappers and bunko artists possibly be right?

Around 1950, even "experts" had to acknowledge that cloud seeding works. Large-scale weather modification was a very real possibility when I went through high school.

Living in the upper Midwest, I took more notice of plans that focused on bringing rain to growing crops — and keeping the fields dry during planting and harvest.

Then the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences tested a newish cloud seeding technique on a storm west of Rapid City, South Dakota.

Torrential rain filled Rapid Creek and other waterways past their banks, backed up behind the Canyon Lake Dam: which underwent catastrophic failure during the night of June 9, 1972.

Rescue and recovery teams eventually found most of the bodies, and the debris has long since been cleared away.

The flood killed 238 people, injured 3,057, and destroyed more than 1,335 homes and 5,000 automobiles. After that experience, disaster response procedures changed: and folks aren't allowed to build houses or motels where another flood will eventually happen.

Another bit of good news: Nobody hunted down and lynched the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences folks. The last I heard, there still wasn't any evidence that their cloud seeding experiment made that storm get nasty.

As I recall, though, public discussion of weather modification stopped — rather abruptly. Understandably, I suppose.

Learning Wisdom: Not Fear

Humans have pretty good brains: the trick is using them properly. (February 10, 2013)

I take the Bible very seriously: it's 'in the rules.' (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 101-133)

On the other hand, I'm not a hardwired literalist, and that's another topic. (January 30, 2015)

Bear with me, this connects to a discussion of geoengineering that comes later in this post.

We're made "in the image of God," with the power and authority that implies:

"⁴ Then God said: 'Let us make man in our image, after our likeness. Let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, the birds of the air, and the cattle, and over all the wild animals and all the creatures that crawl on the ground.'

"God created man in his image; in the divine image he created him; male and female he created them. "
(Genesis 1:26-27)

No, I do not think that I look like God.

Being made in God's image means that we're people: I'm someone, not something. (Catechism, 356-358)

There's more to it: like what's in Catechism, 1701-1709. Today I'm focusing the job that goes along with that "dominion."

We're pretty hot stuff, like it says in Psalms 8:

"When I see your heavens, the work of your fingers, the moon and stars that you set in place -"

"⁴ What are humans that you are mindful of them, mere mortals that you care for them?"

"⁵ Yet you have made them little less than a god, crowned them with glory and honor."
(Psalms 8:4-6)

I've talked about hubris, humility, and getting a grip, before. (August 10, 2014)

We've got "dominion," but we do not own the universe: or Earth.

I think the 'we can do anything we want' attitude of the 19th and early 20th century was as silly as the currently-fashionable notion that humanity is nothing more than a dangerous, demented, and doomed, animal.

The world is a wonderful place: and it's God's property.

Our position is sort of like shop foreman or steward. We don't own the place, but we're responsible for its management. (Catechism, 339, 952, 2402-2405, 2456)

Considering the responsibility that comes with our power, being made in the image of God is a scary thought. (March 17, 2013)

But, scary or not, we've got a job to do: taking care of the world's resources for our use, and for future generations. (Catechism, 339, 2402, 2415)

Curiosity comes with being human. Studying the universe, and developing new tools using that knowledge, is part of our job. So is paying attention to ethics. (Catechism, 2293-2295)

Being scared silly won't, I think, help. It makes about as much sense as a shop foreman being scared of power tools.

---

1. 'Next Pinatubo' and Geoengineering

(From USGS, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
("The 1991 Mount Pinatubo blast was the biggest on Earth in recent times"
(BBC News))

" 'Next Pinatubo' a test of geoengineering"
Jonathan Amos, BBC News (February 14, 2015)

"Scientists who study ideas to engineer the climate to mitigate global warming say we should be ready to deploy an armada of instrumentation when Earth has its next major volcanic eruption.

"Data gathered in the high atmosphere would be invaluable in determining whether so-called 'geoengineering' solutions had any merit at all.

"It would have to be an event on the scale of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

"That eruption cooled global temperatures for a couple of years.

"It did so by pumping 20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide high into the sky above the Philippines.

"The resulting droplets of sulphuric acid that formed on contact with moisture reflected incoming sunlight back out into space, preventing that radiation from warming the surface.

"Some have suggested humanity could mimic this same effect by deliberately seeding the stratosphere with sulphur...."

Mount Pinatubo's 1991 eruption "was the biggest on Earth in recent times" — sort of.

It depends on what you think "recent" means. Novarupta's inaugural 1912 eruption, 47 kilometers, 290 miles, southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, was roughly as big as Pinatubo's.

The Oruanui eruption, about 26,500 years back; and the Yellowstone Caldera's. some 640,000 years ago; were more than a thousand times more massive than any 20th century.

Then, every 22,000,000 years or so, on average, large igneous provinces happen. There was one in what we call the Pacific Northwest about 17,000,000 to 14,000,000 years ago — which was still fairly active until around 6,000,000 years back.

Another, some 125,000,000–120,000,000 years back, formed the Ontong Java Plateau; and 251,000,000 to 250,000,000 years ago another big one left the Siberian Traps, and almost certainly helped start Earth's biggest known extinction event.

It might be coincidence, but we've found what looks a whole lot like what's left of an asteroid impact under Wilkes Land in Antarctica. That happened a quarter of a billion years back, when Wilkes Land was antipodal to the Siberian Traps.

Earth's core would have acted as an acoustic lens, focusing shock waves from the impact — if that's what it was — on the other side of the planet. Something like that happened on Mercury, and that's yet another topic. (November 29, 2013)

Where was I? Pinatubo. Global warming. Climate change. Geoengineering. Right.

"Geoengineering?!"

"... Allergic to Change ..."

"Humans are allergic to change. They love to say, 'We've always done it this way.' I try to fight that. That's why I have a clock on my wall that runs counter-clockwise."
(Grace Hopper, developer of the first compiler for a computer programming language, U.S. Naval officer)

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of an environmental process that affects the earth's climate, is a new word for a new idea. Some discussion of geoengineering has been fairly calm:

• "Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty"
  Blog, PolicyLab meetings, Reports and publications, Projects, Policy, Royal Society (September 1, 2009)

Other folks, predictably, seem convinced that geoengineering threatens life, liberty, and business-as-usual. They're right about that last point.

If this was the 'good old days,' we'd probably see fear that discussing geoeningeering offends the Almighty. I don't miss the 'good old days.' (August 29, 2014; April 27, 2014)

The easiest approach to geoengineering is to assume that there's nothing we can — or should — do about Earth's climate: and hope that we'll never need to regulate climate. I think there are several ways to justify this approach: or maybe "rationalize" would be a better term.

Someone might decide that Earth's climate never changes, never will, and can't change: because it doesn't. Another person might decide that we're all gonna die because of [select your favorite crisis], so it doesn't matter what we do: because we're all gonna die anyway.

I didn't say those justifications make sense: but they're possible, if extreme, versions of attitudes I occasionally run into.

Yet another justification may be seriously discussed. It's a version of the 'my end of the boat isn't sinking' argument.

Geoengineering, deliberately changing Earth's climate, will be an expensive project, and more important to future generations than to anyone alive today.

I have no trouble imagining someone deciding that spending money on entertainment, a political campaign, or the biggest tombstone in the cemetery, is more important than making Earth a better place for folks living a thousand years from now.

'It won't happen in my lifetime, so I don't care' may be a natural attitude: but that doesn't make it right. We're expected to use the animals, plants, and inanimate resources of this word — wisely, with respect for the integrity of creation, and with a concern for future generations. (Catechism, 2415-2418)

Then there's Deuteronomy 25:4, instructions about feeding oxen mentioned in 1 Corinthians 9:9 and 1 Timothy 18, that comes between instructions for punishing wrongdoers; and that's yet again another topic.

Earth: Hot, Cold, and Everything in Between

(From Ron Blakey, NAU Geology; via Wikimedia Commons; used w/o permission.)
(Earth during the Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum, 50,000,000 years ago.)

Earth's climate isn't what it used to be: and never was. We're in an interglacial period with another round of continental glaciation on the way — or at the end of the latest ice age cycle.


(From Ron Blakey, NAU Geology; via Wikimedia Commons; used w/o permission.)
(Earth during the early Miocene, 20,000,000 years back. This warm era wouldn't last.)


(From Ron Blakey, NAU Geology; via Wikimedia Commons; used w/o permission.)
(Earth today: either just after — or during a warmish break in — Earth's most recent ice age.)

Either way, Earth is cooler than "normal:" by early Eocene standards. (January 10, 2014)

The current ice age, the Pliocene/Quaternary glaciation, started about 2,580,000 years back.

The last I heard, scientists aren't sure whether this ice age is finally over: or if we're in one of the interglacial periods. We don't know exactly how ice ages work: but it's likely that one factor is how much snow falls near the poles.

It's possible that when Earth heats up enough for the Arctic ice cap to melt, more water evaporates there, leading to heavier snowfalls that don't entirely melt each summer. Eventually, you've got glaciers grinding their way south.

All those glaciers make Earth brighter, reflecting more sunlight back into space. Between that, and lower sea levels that come from so much water going into glaciers, there isn't as much snowfall: which slows the advance of glaciers. That's the idea, anyway.

It's also likely that where the continents matters where ice ages are concerned. Right now, for example, there's a continent at Earth's south pole, and a nearly-landlocked body of water at the north pole. Less water gets moved between the poles and the equator, letting the poles stay very cold.

The Himalayas may be a factor, too. Earth's precipitation rate has apparently gone up since they formed; and they're still growing, by about five millimeters a year.

Earth has been through five major ice ages: the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Age and Pliocene/Quaternary glaciation. Earth has had permanent icecaps at the poles ever since humanity showed up, about two and a half million years back. (July 11, 2014)

It's easy to assume that this is the way it's always been — and always should be. The more we learn about Earth's past, though, the more it looks like ice-free high latitudes are normal: and we're living in an oddly-cold era.

Geoengineering and Options

Somewhere during the next thousand years, we must make some hard decisions.

The question isn't whether or not we can change Earth's climate.

There's good reason to believe that we've been doing it for the last few generations.

The results haven't, hysterical headlines notwithstanding, been dramatic: but we hadn't been trying to turn up the thermostat. It just happened.

Earth's climate changes, and was changing long before humanity arrived. It's changed a lot over the last few billion years.

We've learned quite a bit about these changes in the last few centuries: and there's a lot more to learn.

The last I heard, for example, scientists are still sifting through data and discussing whether the Medieval Warm Period was a regional event: or global.

The Little Ice Age that came later wasn't exactly an ice age, but it was cold: which was good news, sort of, and bad news. Folks could walk from Manhattan to Staten Islands in the winter of 1780. That was the good news. The bad news — well, it could have been worse.

The Great Famine of 1315–1317 happened just before or just after the start of the Little Ice Age — depending on how that protracted cold snap gets defined.

Only around 10 percent of folks living in France, Norway, and Sweden died in famines of 1693–94 (France), 1695–96 (Norway), and 1696–97 (Sweden). Estonia and Finland's famines of 1696–97 killed between a fifth and a third of Finns and Estonians.

Meanwhile, folks stopped trying to grow oranges in Jiangxi Province. Maybe it's a coincidence that shorelines on Pacific islands receded from 1270 to 1475, New Zealand's Franz Josef glacier grew rapidly during the Little Ice Age. Then again: maybe not.

We're still collecting data about Antarctic and Australian climate back then, but there's evidence of colder-than-usual conditions there, too.

One more thing, and I'll get back to long-range planning: Patagonian tree rings show slow growth from 1270 to 1380 and 1520 to 1670, so it looks like the southern hemisphere cooled off then, too.

Gathering Data

As " 'Next Pinatubo' a test of geoengineering" (Jonathan Amos, BBC News) says, the next Pinatubo-scale eruption will let us collect data about what happens when 20 million tones of sulfur dioxide gets dumped into the stratosphere.

The sulfur dioxide changed to droplets of sulfuric acid when it hit water droplets. That reflected incoming sunlight back out into space, which cooled off part Earth's surface.

Studying this phenomenon would take a fleet of balloons, aircraft, and satellites: at least some equipped with lidar. Those resources weren't available when Pinatubo exploded, but now we could set up rapid-response teams and wait for the next major explosive eruption.

We could probably get the data faster by pumping sulfur into Earth's upper atmosphere: but that would be expensive, and I don't think any sane person would be overly eager to sign the 'go ahead' order.

It'd be a bit like those 'mad scientist' movies, when Professor Übergeschnappt chugalugged (yes, they're real words) a brew that Boris the demented assistant wouldn't touch: and that's still another topic.

Seeding the stratosphere with sulfur isn't our only geoengineering alternative. For example, we've developed carbon dioxide scrubbers for industrial operations — and the Space Shuttle.

Scaling something like the shuttle RCRS up to handle continent-size volumes of Earth's atmosphere would be expensive: and a massive technical challenge. But it might be a better idea than seeding the stratosphere.

More than you may want to know about RCRS:

• "The Design and Testing of a Fully Redundant Regenerative CO2 Removal System (RCRS) for the Shuttle Orbiter"
  Tom Filburn, Tim Nalette, John Graf; SAE International (2001)

Choices: Crazy and Otherwise

Like I said, we have hard decisions ahead.

We're very close to having the technology needed to adjust Earth's climate. Having the knowledge it takes to do so safely — that's emphatically a work in progress.

In the short run — a few centuries, on these scales — putting more carbon dioxide scrubbers on factory exhausts and fruit storage locations, and catalytic converters on cars should be enough. Finding a practical alternative to petroleum-powered vehicles is a good idea for several reasons. Still more topics.

Somewhere in the next thousand years or so, though, we'll need to decide where to set Earth's thermostat.

One option is to pick a recent era — maybe that warm spell, a thousand years back; or the mid-19th century — and keep Earth's climate pretty close to that era's conditions.

Or we could decide that what this world needs is more mammoths and mastodons; clone a few herds, or reverse-engineer the critters from elephants; and return to the climate of the Late Miocene and early Pliocene. Eventually we'd have to evacuate places like Seattle, Chicago, New York City, and Moscow: but there'd be new beachfront property, thanks to lower sea levels.

Yet another option would be to let Earth warm up a little more. Humans aren't really suited for arctic and subarctic conditions, anyway.

If we were careful, we'd have time to build new port cities, replacing places like San Diego and Singapore — which would flood as sea levels rose to "normal" levels.

I suggest the Late Cretaceous as the model for this option. 'Correcting' what happened around 66,000,000 years back would allow open-air zoos stocked with ersatz dinosaurs, and that's — you guessed it — another topic.

We wouldn't necessarily have to completely abandon today's coastal cities. A few, at least, could be preserved as museums or luxury resorts: enclosed by water- and pressure-resistant domes.

My guess is that we'll decide that polar ice caps are okay: and ignore the 'save the mammoth' and 'dino power' activists.

---

2. Furry Critters and Dinosaurs

"Furry forerunners: Jurassic arboreal, burrowing mammals unearthed"
Will Dunham, Reuters (February 12, 2015)

"It may not have been the most opportune time to be a furry little critter, what with all those hungry dinosaurs and flying reptiles hanging around. But early mammals still managed to make their mark during the Jurassic Period.

"Scientists on Thursday described fossils unearthed in China of two shrew-sized creatures that represent the oldest-known tree-climbing and burrowing mammals and show that early mammals had claimed a variety of ecological niches.

"Agilodocodon scansorius, an omnivore that lived about 165 million years ago, possessed paws with curved claws for climbing, limb dimensions characteristic of other tree-dwelling mammals and flexible elbow, wrist and ankle joints good for scrambling up trees with agility.

"Its spade-like front teeth, similar to some New World monkeys today, allowed it to chew into bark and eat tree gum or sap.

"Docofossor, a mole-like insect-eater that lived about 160 million years ago, boasted shovel-like paws for digging, teeth similar to later burrowing mammals that forage underground and sprawling limbs ideal for underground movement.

"University of Chicago paleontologist Zhe-Xi Luo called Docofossor a 'dead ringer' for today's African golden mole...."

I'm fascinated by what we're learning about Earth's long backstory. Your experience may vary.

Docofossor seems to have pioneered underground life for mammaliaformes. That's a phylogenetic nomenclature term — a new way of describing critters that you'll probably never use, unless you're a big fan of paleontology.

Getting back to Docofossor, moles, and all that: golden moles aren't made of gold, and they're not moles. They look a lot like Australia's marsupial moles, which also aren't moles. I've talked about convergent evolution before. A lot. (January 30, 2015; September 12, 2014; June 6, 2014)

Agilodocodon scansorius looked a bit like a squirrel: a very small squirrel. The critter was 13 centimeters, about 5⅛ inches, long: including the tail. Agilodocodon scansorius had spade-like teeth, sort of like critters that gnaw bark and drink sap today.

But evolutionary biologist Frietson Galis pointed out that saying its teeth aren't quite like today's sap-sucking monkeys — and the extinct critter's lower jaw is long, thin, and doesn't look strong enough to chomp tree bark. Not effectively.

This isn't, I think, useless information. If you memorize enough of these facts, you'll find them effective at inducing glazed eyes and blank expressions in folks you want to bore silly.

Modularity

A bit more seriously, the Reuters article says that Docofossor's fingers are so exactly similar to today's moles that they may have used the same genes. That may mean that one of the scientists mentioned in Will Dunham's article said so: or that Mr. Dunham knows about Wikipedia.

The critter in the photo is an eastern, or common, mole: and sincerely not threatened by extinction. Not any time soon, at least.

Wikipedia's page on Docofossor says that the BMP and GDF-5 control that critter's mole-like finger traits. That's odd, or at least unexpected, since Docofossor and moles are in different branches of the mammal family.

Or maybe not so odd. The same genes control the growth of paws, hands, and spotted gar fins. Earth's life is very modular at the genetic level. (January 9, 2015; December 26, 2014)

I still run into folks who seem unwilling to think that we really are made of the stuff of this world. And like just about every other topic in this post, I've talked about that before. (October 31, 2014; July 15, 2014; April 4, 2014)

More about cautions optimism and "greater admiration:"

• "Environmentalism: Using the Brains God Gave Us"
  (June 15, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Delicate and Fragile as Cockroaches and Thistles
  • God's Property, Our Responsibility
  • "Essentially Benign?"
  • Not Lords, Not Victims: Stewards
• "Dinosaur Tracks; the Great Dying; and a Black Death Burial Ground"
  (April 4, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Life in a Changing Universe
  • Ancient Universe, New Ideas
  • Metaphorical Clay
• "Protecting Tornado Alley With Tao's Walls?"
  (March 14, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Learning About Fire
  • Admiring the Universe, Doing Our Job —
  • — For All Generations
  • Cloud Seeding and Being Careful
• "Environmentalism: Using the Brains God Gave Us"
  (June 15, 2014)
  Particularly
  • Delicate and Fragile as Cockroaches and Thistles
  • God's Property, Our Responsibility
  • "Essentially Benign?"
  • Not Lords, Not Victims: Stewards
• "Scorpions, Acid Rain, and the Great Dying"
  (November 29, 2013)
  Particularly
  • Prophets of Doom
  • The Coming Ice Age, Global Warming, and All That
  • Manure, Killer Fog, Smog, ...
  • Humans: Doing Our Job
• "Fusion Power, Terraforming, and Old Dutch Windmills"
  (October 11, 2013)
  Particularly
  • Buck Rogers to Bigelow Aerospace
  • Terraforming and Windmills
  • Technology: Living and Learning
  • One Step at a Time

Protecting Tornado Alley With Tao's Walls?

Tornado season is only a few months away for folks living in America's Tornado Alley. Each year, these storms kill some of us. Professor Rongjia Tao's plan could stop tornadoes before they form.

I think 'Tao's walls' should be considered.


(from AP, via FoxNews.com, used w/o permission)

1. Measuring Avalanches Before They Happen
2. No More Tornadoes?
   • Huge, Yes: "Unworkable," No
   • Preventing Tornadoes: Maybe —
   • — Or Maybe Not
   • "Worse than the Disease:" Today
   • Cloud Seeding and Being Careful

First, why I think developing new technologies and learning about our world is okay.

---

Learning About Fire

"Long ago, man learned to make fire. Generations later, man learned how to put out fires."
Old joke

(From Omar hoftun, via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.)
(Çatalhöyük, a proto-city which flourished from 7500 BC to 5700 BC, as folks were uncovering it in the 20th century.)

Early adapters started using fire somewhere between 1,700,000 and 125,000 years back. By then, most folks seem to have figured out ways to use fire without getting burned.

Recently, about 9,000 or 10,000 years ago, we started building cities: which caught fire occasionally.

Instead of deciding to stop building cities, or outlawing fire, we cleaned up the mess each time, eventually developing volunteer fire departments and halon extinguishers: which we may decide are more trouble than they're worth.

All this talk about fire, and cities, and people living before October 23, 4004 BC, raises a question: how can I believe in God, and think that the universe is huge and old?

Ancient, Not Outdated

(From MM, via Italian Wikipedia, used w/o permission)

I'm a Catholic, so I believe in God. (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 1)

Since I'm Catholic, I'm a Christian: with access to accumulated wisdom from an ancient oral tradition and writings from the last two dozen centuries. We're ancient, but we're not outdated.

For the first dozen centuries or so, Catholics lived in a world where most folks were shepherds, servants, or slaves. Today we're in a world where many are cashiers, food service workers, or sales associates. We'll be here when most people have occupations that don't exist yet.

Our faith isn't tied to one nation, culture, or era. We are literally καθολικός, universal, and that's another topic. (August 4, 2013)

Truth Cannot Contradict Truth

(From "The Three-Story Universe," © N. F. Gier, God, Reason, and the Evangelicals (1987), via Nick Gier, University of Idaho, used w/o permission.)

I could follow my faith and believe that ancient Mesopotamian cosmology was an accurate model of this universe. But because I am a Catholic, I don't have to ignore what we've learned over the last several millennia.

I've been over this before, but since my native culture has some strange notions — I think it bears repeating.

God is truth. Truth cannot contradict truth.

The universe is beautiful and good. God is making the universe.

Faith comes from God: so honest study of the universe cannot contradict faith. (Genesis 1:1-2:9; Catechism, 31-32, 105-108, 159, 279, 282-289, 301, 341)

Admiring the Universe, Doing Our Job —

"Do not love the world or the things of the world. ⁷ If anyone loves the world, the love of the Father is not in him.

"For all that is in the world, sensual lust, ⁸ enticement for the eyes, and a pretentious life, is not from the Father but is from the world.

"Yet the world and its enticement are passing away. But whoever does the will of God remains forever."
(1 John 2:17-17)

Someone recited those verses from 1 John to me, after I'd expressed the opinion that God created both natural law and physical law.

I don't see a problem with saying that God made the universe and designed it with ethical principles built in: but I've also quoted from "Alice in Wonderland," and that's yet another topic. (May 12, 2013)

I think part of the problem is that my native language, English, has one word for agápe, éros, philía, and storgē: "love." I'd better not mean ἀγάπη hamburgers and merely στοργή God.

Loving the universe the way I should love God is wrong. (Catechism, 2113-2114)

I do, however, admire the universe a great deal. God does excellent work, and I'm looking forward to the re-release. Revelation 21:1 and all that.


(From NASA/JPL-Caltech/Harvard-Smithsonian CfA, used w/o permission.)

Anyway, I'm pretty sure that "the world" in 1 John 2:17 is everything that's hostile toward God and alienated from him. Since God made the world, said that it's "very good," and isn't schizophrenic: I really don't think I'm supposed to ignore this astounding creation.

I realize that we live in a fallen world, and still dealing with consequences of our first parents' disobedience. And that's yet again another topic. (July 11, 2012)

Even if I decided stop enjoying the beauty of this creation, and stopped being curious about how it works: somebody better be paying attention, because one of our jobs requires a good working knowledge of this world.

— For All Generations

(From Jongleur100, via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.)

God made us in His image, male and female, and told us to take care of this world. (Genesis 1:26-28)

Knowing that I'm an "image of God" doesn't make me feel like a hotshot. Maybe it's because I remember Matthew 25:14-30.

Or maybe it's because I remember when bragging about humanity's control over the forces was still fairly common.

The notion that we've got complete control over the world, and can do anything we like with it, is silly. So is the more recently-fashionable one that we're nothing but a destructive animal that will destroy the world. (February 10, 2013)

We don't own the universe. It belongs to God. We are, however, in control: as stewards. We have the frightening responsibility of wisely managing this world's resources, for the good of all: for today, and for all generations to come. (Catechism, 2415-2418)

It's the same job we've had since God put us here. What's changed recently is the degree of control we have over some of the natural world.

Happily, we seem to be learning that "With great power there must also come — great responsibility!" (June 30, 2013)


(ISS Expedition 34, via Wikipedia Commons, used w/o permission.)

---

1. Measuring Avalanches Before They Happen

"Microwave radar monitors sliding slopes: Geodesists research in the Alps"
ScienceDaily (March 10, 2014)

"The 'Steinlehnen' slope in Northern Tyrol (Austria) started to move in 2003. Rockfalls threatened people, streets and buildings. Meanwhile, peace has returned; although the slope is merely 'creeping,' Steinlehnen has become an interesting research object for scientists in recent years.

"Professor Andreas Eichhorn of the Geodetic Measurement Systems and Sensors branch in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Technical University of Darmstadt initiated the interdisciplinary project KASIP (Knowledge-based Alarm System with Identified Deformation Predictor) together with the Technical University of Vienna and the 'alpS' research institute; the goal was to combine metrological observations of the slope with computer models.

" 'A slope is tremendously complex,' says Eichhorn. It can be difficult to determine exactly how a mountain slope is composed and how a failure mechanism works in detail. Therefore, scientists will not be able to rely solely on computer-based models to predict mass movements in the future; they also need efficient and precise surveillance and monitoring systems that are as comprehensive as possible...."

Folks have two basic options for measuring a mountainside that's likely to collapse: three, if you count not trying at all.

The hands-and-feet-on approach involves walking out on the slope, taking samples or placing monitors, and trying to get away before an avalanche starts. A team could lose a lot of equipment, interns, and scientists that way.

The wait-and-watch approach is safer, and gives very precise data with today's scanning technology.

These scientist take snapshots of mountain slopes with microwaves. They decided against laser light, since reflections in visible frequencies are "noisy," and affected by weather.

Analyzing the microwave reflections, they get 3D images of the slopes: so precise that they can detect changes of a few millimeters between two 'snapshots.'

---

2. No More Tornadoes?

(From AFT, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
"More than 800 tornadoes were recorded in the US last year"

"Great Walls of America 'could stop tornadoes' "
James Morgan, BBC News (March 7, 2014)

"Building three 'Great Walls' across Tornado Alley in the US could eliminate the disasters, a physicist says.

"The barriers - 300m (980ft) high and up to 100 miles long - would act like hill ranges, softening winds before twisters can form.

"They would cost $16bn (£9.6bn) to build but save billions of dollars of damage each year, said Prof Rongjia Tao, of Temple University, Philadelphia.

"He unveiled his idea at the American Physical Society meeting in Denver.

"However critics say the idea is unworkable, and would create more problems than it solves...."

I'm quite sure that Professor Tao's proposed walls aren't the sort of software-generated gibberish I discussed last week. He seems to have studied tornadoes, North America's landforms, and arrived at a possible method for preventing these destructive storms.

I think he's sincere: but I'm not sure that he's right. Not entirely.

Huge, Yes: "Unworkable," No

I'm not at all convinced that building several hundred miles of thousand-foot-tall walls is "unworkable."

As Dr. Tao pointed out, we routinely build structures as high as his walls: like Philadephia's Comcast building. If the walls didn't include power and communication cables, plumbing, elevators, and other fittings required in office and residential structures, Tao's walls should be very straightforward engineering projects.

The cost is another matter. Even for the United States, a $16,000,000,000 project is huge. As for negotiating with five state governments, the U.S. Congress, and assorted counties and municipalities: My guess is that we'd need very compelling arguments.

Preventing Tornadoes: Maybe —

(From NOAA, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)

"...The proposed walls would not shelter towns - they would not be strong enough to block a tornado in motion.

"Instead, they would soften the clashing streams of hot southern and cold northern air, which form twisters in the first place, Prof Tao said.

" 'If we build three east-west great walls, one in North Dakota, one along the border between Kansas and Oklahoma, and the third in the south in Texas and Louisiana, we will diminish the threats in Tornado Alley forever,' he said...."
(James Morgan, BBC News)

I added Tao's walls, as described, to a map of the United States Interstate Highway system.



Maybe, compared to building the Interstate system, the project isn't so big after all. Whether it's a good idea: that's another question.

— Or Maybe Not

"...Another leading tornado expert, Prof Joshua Wurman of the Center for Severe Weather Research, was equally dismissive of Prof Tao's proposal.

" 'Everybody I know is of 100% agreement - this is a poorly conceived idea,' he told BBC News.

" 'From what I can gather his concept of how tornadoes form is fundamentally flawed. Meteorologists cringe when they hear about "clashing hot and cold air". It's a lot more complicated than that.'

"Though much of the blame does lie with warm air rushing north from the Gulf of Mexico, stopping it would be nigh on impossible, Prof Wurman says.

" 'Perhaps if he built his barrier on the scale of the Alps - 2,000-3,000m (9,800ft) high, it would disrupt it,' he says.

" 'But clearly that would also cause a drastic change in climate.'..."
(James Morgan, BBC News)

I'm a tad dubious about assertions that include the words "everybody I know." What "everybody knows" can reflect the beliefs of a community that's tight-knit, or isolated: depending on your point of view. On the other hand, sometimes "everybody" got it right.

Professor Wurman is probably right, though: thousand-foot-high walls might not have much effect on continent-sized air masses. If the weather walls need to be about 10,000 feet tall to make a difference: we probably couldn't build them. Not in the next few years, anyway.

On the other hand, mile-high skyscrapers have been on the drawing boards for decades, so maybe a two-mile-tall wall is within our abilities. Frank Lloyd Wright's The Illinois may have been an inspiration for the Burj Khalifa.

I think Professor Wurman is right: to a certain extent.

"Worse than the Disease:" Today

(From AP/The Oklahoman, via FoxNews.com, used w/o permission.)
(After a tornado in Oklahoma: May 2013.)

"...'But clearly that would also cause a drastic change in climate.'

"And there lies the real crux of the problem, says Prof Wurman. Any geoengineering scheme powerful enough to eliminate tornadoes would also by definition have catastrophic side effects.

" 'The cure could be worse than the disease,' he told BBC News.

" 'So the solution to tornadoes is not trying to get rid of them.

" 'It's better predictions and warnings so people can get out of way. Better homes. Better shelters.'..."
(James Morgan, BBC News)

"Geoengineering," in this context, is changing or building something on a scale that affects Earth's climate.

Folks changing the environment is nothing new. Irrigation systems in ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, and China made large-scale agriculture possible: and jump-started our civilizations.

What's changed most, in a way, is the scale of our changes.

The bad news is that being stupid, greedy, or short-sighted can cause much more trouble today than in the days of the pharaohs.

The good news is that we've got technology that eradicated smallpox, drastically reduced the scale of plagues, and can feed everyone in the world. Yes, some of us are still hungry. We've got the ability to feed everyone: but haven't eliminated corrupt officials and inefficient distribution networks: and that's — another topic.

Cloud Seeding and Being Careful

(From National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.)
(Black Hills Flood of 1972: jumbled cars.)

We're even able to influence weather: and, happily, are being a bit more careful about our experiments. That much good, at least, came from a lethal storm back in 1972: my opinion.

There is no proof that cloud seeding experiments by the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences caused a lethal deluge.

However, the scale of the disaster encouraged a certain diffidence regarding weather control. When the sun rose on June 10, 1972: 238 folks had died; 3,057 were injured; 1,335 homes, and 5,000 cars, were destroyed. Some bodies have not yet been recovered.

Folks still use cloud seeding technology: carefully, on a small scale: generally to increase the odds of useful precipitation; or to suppress hail or fog around airports.

Being careful is one thing. Deciding that any new technology is a bad idea: not so much. Even so, projects on the scale of Tao's walls should be very carefully thought through: before they're built.

The stakes are at least as high as they were back when we learned how to make fire: and that's where I started.


(From NASA/GSFC/MODIS, used w/o permission.)

Related posts:

• "Scorpions, Acid Rain, and the Great Dying"
  (November 29, 2013)
  Particularly
  • Manure, Killer Fog, Smog, ...
  • Humans: Doing Our Job
• "Fusion Power, Terraforming, and Old Dutch Windmills"
  (October 11, 2013)
  Particularly
  • Technology: Living and Learning
• "Designed as Stewards"
  (March 17, 2013)
  Particularly
  • Nature, Humans, and God
  • Made in the Image of God: A Scary Thought
  • "With Great Power ..."
• " '...The Man With the X-Ray Eyes,' the Tuskegee Experiment, and Seeking God"
  (February 10, 2013)
  Particularly
  • 'Now That We are In Control....'
  • Powerful, Yes; All-Powerful, No
• "Rapid City Flood, 1972, and Cloud Seeding: 'Oops' "
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (March 28, 2009)