Indonesian Earthquake: Links to News, and Rambling on About Estimates and Common Sense

Quite a few places have been hit by earthquakes this week. Many of them in Sumatra.

The number of dead in Indonesia is 540 (local authorities) or 1,100 (U.N. official), and it's quite possible that 4,000 are trapped under the rubble. Someone with the U.N. explained that the 1,100 figure was an early estimate. (CNN) I'm inclined to believe the U.N. numbers - and those of the local officials: because I think they're two different counts.

It's likely enough that the local officials are counting people they actually know are dead: Folks who stopped living rather abruptly when the earthquake hit, and whose bodies have been found. In some parts of the world, local officials seem to under-report problems: probably to keep themselves from looking bad. I have no idea if that happens in Indonesia, but I have no reason to think so.

An early estimate that's roughly twice the actual death toll is what a responsible emergency-response official might reasonably come up with. Think about it:

• An earthquake hits
• Communications lines are down
• Survivors and reconnaissance shows that some small communities aren't there any more
• It's obvious that a lot of people died
• Survivors are going to need help
  • Including finding the dead, so they can be buried, cremated, or whatever the local custom is
    • That's not just 'being nice'
      • Dead bodies, left unattended, serve as incubators for a smorgasbord of loathsome diseases
• Survivors could use outside help

Imagine you're responsible for putting out a call for help. People at the other end will want to know how big the problem is. You could give a low-end estimate, and hope for the best.

'Hey, the ground shook, some buildings collapsed, we don't have power, telephones don't work, and nobody's answering radio calls: How bad can it be?'

No: that's not sensible. Taking available information, including known body counts, multiplying that by a factor to account for what can't be known, and asking for help to cover a reasonably pessimistic scenario - yeah, that makes sense.

It's like the fire department in the small town where I live. A fire alarm at the school brings a substantial fraction of the force immediately - often with more coming in a second wave.

Usually it's an overreaction. But I don't think it's unreasonable. Think of the alternative: One fire truck and a firefighter with a portable extinguisher shows up. Generally, that's all that's needed. Except this time, the fire started in the library and the place is going up like kindling. One dude with a squirt bottle, no matter how sincere, isn't going to be much help.

Back to Indonesia - We don't know how many people died. We probably won't for weeks - or months - or we may never know for sure. Some of the areas were hit hard.

Asking for more help than is actually needed, in circumstances like this, isn't all that bad an idea.

Related posts:

• "Indonesia: Lots of Earthquakes, Lots of People Killed; Lots More Needing Help"
  (October 3, 2009)
• "Data Dump: Major Earthquakes During the Last Week"
  (October 3, 2009)
• "Samoan Tsunami - Not Good News, But it Could Have Been Worse"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (September 30, 2009)
• "Zambia: Corruption, Hospitals, and Bishops"
  (July 22, 2009)
• "Earthquake in Ziarat: I Have to Care"
  (October 29, 2008)

In the news:

• "Focus in Samoa moves from rescue to survivor aid"
  The Associated Press (October 3, 2009)
• "Study Says China Quake A Once In 4,000 Years Event"
  The Associated Press, via CBS News (October 3, 2009)
  • This is a follow-up piece on a devastating earthquake that hit China last year
• "Up to 4,000 buried in Indonesian quake rubble"
  CNN (October 3, 2009)
• "World Shows Solidarity Over West Sumatra Earthquake"
  BERNAMA (Malaysian News Agency) (October 3, 2009)
• "Wilson: Dolphins' Soliai grieving loss of family members"
  National Football Post (October 2, 2009)
• "Pope Offers Prayers for Indonesian Quake Victims"
  Zenit (October 2, 2009)
• "Earthquake swarm hits California's Eastern Sierra, including 5.1 Inyo County temblor [updated]"
  Los Angeles Times (October 1, 2009)
• "Scores dead, villages flattened in devastating Samoan tsunami"
  CNN (September 30, 2009)
• "Strong earthquakes may weaken distant fault lines"
  Reuters (September 30, 2009)